(WHTM) - Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1% in Pennsylvania and within the margin of error, according to the final Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Monday morning.
The poll found that Trump had 49% support in Pennsylvania compared to Harris's 48% support, leaving the race within the survey's +/-3% margin of error.
The poll also highlighted a wide gender gap among Pennsylvania voters. Pennsylvania men break for Trump by 17% (58% to 41%), while women break for Harris by 13% (55% to 42%).
Trump has led Harris by one point in Pennsylvania in each of the last there Emerson College/The Hill surveys. Harris has cut Trump's lead from a July survey that found him up six points after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
The latest poll also found that in Michigan, Vice President Harris has a two-point edge over former president Trump, 50% to 48%. The race is even in Nevada and Wisconsin, at 48% in Nevada and 49% in Wisconsin. Trump has a one-point edge in Georgia (50% to 49%), and North Carolina (49% to 48%). In Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge, 50% to 48%. All polls are within each survey’s margin of error.
“As seen in national and previous polls, gender continues to provide a sharp contrast in voting intention,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In states where Harris has an edge, like Michigan and Wisconsin, voters break in near opposite directions, whereas states where Trump has an edge, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, men break for Trump by a larger margin than women break for Harris.”
The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%.
All mail ballots ballots must be returned to your county Board of Election by 8 p.m. on Election Day, November 5. Polling locations are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.
METHODOLOGY
The sample size for Arizona is n=900, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of
error of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is n=790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%.
The sample size for North Carolina is n=860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample
size for Nevada is n=840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for
Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is
n=800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%
Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, partisan affiliation/registration, education, and voter registration/turnout data per state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and
landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an
online panel provided by CINT. The surveys were offered in English. Data was collected
between October 30-November 2, 2024. The surveys were conducted by Emerson College
Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced.
Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a
confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.